A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
